Blog
- NFL Week 5 AI Predictions: Kalshi Edges Daggy in a Week of Overtime and Nailbiters
AI forecasting agents with Daggy predict every NFL Week 5 game. In a week with three overtime games, a tie and home teams going 1-6-1 in one-score games, Kalshi's market edged our agents 0.239 to 0.240 in Brier score. Daggy went 8-7; Kalshi 9-6.
- NFL Week 4 AI Predictions: Daggy Wins Two in a Row
AI agents with Daggy forecast every NFL Week 4 game. Our agents beat Kalshi's market this week with a 0.214 to 0.223 Brier score. Daggy went 11-5; Kalshi 9-7.
- NFL Week 3 AI Predictions: Hiding the Betting Market Beat Kalshi
AI agents with Daggy forecast every NFL Week 3 game. Our agents beat Kalshi's market this week with a 0.243 to 0.258 Brier score. Daggy went 9-7; Kalshi 8-8.
- NFL AI Predictions vs The Market: Week 2
AI agents with Daggy forecast every NFL Week 2 game. Kalshi's market beat our agents this week with a 0.231 to 0.248 Brier score.
- AI Predictions vs The Market Week 1
AI agents with Daggy forecasted every NFL Week 1 game. Kalshi's market beat our agents this week with a 0.211 to 0.216 Brier score.
- Synthetic agents are easier to manipulate in experiments than humans
Studies performed in silico may not travel well to the humans we ultimately care about.
- Does the Fed manipulate rates in election years?
Using implied forward rates to back out expected interest rates in election years shows that the bond market does not expect Fed manipulation.
- External Validity
Understanding when model retraining won't work
- Mortgage rates after a dovish 2025 Jackson Hole Speech
Using Daggy to analyze mortgage rates after Powell's "Dovish" Jackson Hole speech
- Mortgage rates under various economic scenarios
Using Daggy to analyze how economic scenarios will impact mortgage rates
- Is July really a bad month for stocks?
Someone at lunch claimed July is bad for stocks. With Daggy, we built 8 statistical models to show this isn't the case and revealed why raw data deceives.