Does the Fed manipulate rates in election years?
Using implied forward rates to back out expected interest rates in election years shows that the bond market does not expect Fed manipulation.
financestatistics
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External Validity
Understanding when model retraining won't work
machine learningstatistics
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Mortgage rates after a dovish 2025 Jackson Hole Speech
Using Daggy to analyze mortgage rates after Powell's "Dovish" Jackson Hole speech
financescenario analysismortgage rates
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Mortgage rates under various economic scenarios
Using Daggy to analyze how economic scenarios will impact mortgage rates
financescenario analysismortgage rates
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Is July really a bad month for stocks?
Someone at lunch claimed July is bad for stocks. With Daggy, we built 8 statistical models to show this isn't the case and revealed why raw data deceives.
statisticsfinance
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